:Product: 19980911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 254 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8333 (N12W55)
GENERATED A M2/1B X-RAY EVENT AT 11/1603Z, WHICH WAS PRECEEDED BY
TWO EARLIER C1/SF EVENTS, AND FOLLOWED BY A C2/SF EVENT. THE M2
FLARE OCCURRED OVER SEVERAL ERUPTIVE CENTERS, AND HAD AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH SPEED BSD (BRIGHT SURGE ON THE DISK). A SMALL ARCH FILAMENT
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH PORTION OF THE REGION.
REGION 8333 IS CLASSIFIED AS A 9-SPOT 'CSO' BETA GROUP. ONE NEW
SMALL B-TYPE REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY, 8334 AT S25W35.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8333.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS IN THE MODERATE TO
HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP
CLASS M    20/15/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 SEP 139
PREDICTED   12 SEP-14 SEP  135/130/125
90 DAY MEAN        11 SEP 125
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 SEP  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP  010/009-010/009-005/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01