:Product: 19980912RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 255 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. FOUR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST AN UNCORRELATED C3 AT
12/0753Z. REGIONS 8331 (N25E02) AND 8333 (N11W71) EACH GENERATED A
SINGLE C1/SF EVENT. REGION 8331 CONTINUES AS THE MOST COMPLEX ACTIVE
REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, AS A 25-SPOT 'EAI' BETA GROUP. REGION
8333, WHICH WAS THE SOURCE OF YESTERDAY'S M2/1B EVENT, IS CURRENTLY
A 5-SPOT 'DAO' BETA. NEW REGION 8335 (S22E68), A SMALL C-TYPE
GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WITH
CONDITIONS DECREASING TO MOSTLY QUIET ON DAYS 2 AND 3.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 SEP-15 SEP
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 SEP 135
PREDICTED   13 SEP-15 SEP  130/125/125
90 DAY MEAN        12 SEP   125
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 SEP  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 SEP  012/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 SEP-15 SEP  010/009-005/009-005/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 SEP-15 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01