:Product: 19980913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 256 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. FIVE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST A C8/SF FROM REGION
8333 (N12W83) AT 13/1825Z. THIS REGION, A 3-SPOT 'DAO' BETA GROUP AS
IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB, WAS ALSO THE SOURCE OF AN EARLIER C1/SF
EVENT. REGION 8329 (N14W60) PRODUCED A C3/SF EVENT AT 13/0907Z, AND
UNSPOTTED REGION 8326 (N21W53) GENERATED IT'S SECOND C1/SF EVENT
SINCE 2030Z YESTERDAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH
LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 SEP-16 SEP
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 SEP 131
PREDICTED   14 SEP-16 SEP  125/125/130
90 DAY MEAN        13 SEP 126
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 SEP  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 SEP  007/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 SEP-16 SEP  005/009-005/009-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 SEP-16 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01