:Product: 19980914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 257 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C-CLASS EVENT
OCCURRED; A C1/SF AT 0452Z FROM REGION 8326 (N21W66), A SPOTLESS
PLAGE. ALTHOUGH SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS ARE VISIBLE, NONE HAS BEEN
PRODUCTIVE. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT LOW
LEVELS. WATCH THE NE LIMB FOR THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8307 (N30,
L-034), THE SITE OF FIVE X-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION. THAT REGION
IS DUE TO RETURN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 SEP-17 SEP
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 SEP 122
PREDICTED   15 SEP-17 SEP  120/120/125
90 DAY MEAN        14 SEP 126
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP  005/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP  005/008-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 SEP-17 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01