:Product: 19980915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 258 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C2
BURST OCCURRED AT 15/0536UT.  ALL CURRENT REGIONS APPEAR STABLE OR
DECLINING.  MINOR PROMINENCE ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED EARLIER ON THE
EAST LIMB, NEAR THE LOCATION WHERE OLD REGION 8307 (N30, L-034)
RETURNED AS A SIMPLE PLAGE REGION.  SEVERAL SMALL PLAGE REGIONS ARE
QUIETLY ROTATING OFF THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF INCREASED ACTIVITY FROM
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, OF PARTICULAR INTEREST
IS REGION 8319 (N19, L-008), DUE BACK ON 17 SEP.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF THE NORTHERN SOLAR CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 SEP-18 SEP
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 SEP 117
PREDICTED   16 SEP-18 SEP  120/125/130
90 DAY MEAN        15 SEP 126
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 SEP  002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 SEP  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 SEP-18 SEP  010/010-010/010-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 SEP-18 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05