:Product: 19980919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 262 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGIONS 8336 (S30E11),
8339 (S17E16), AND 8343 (N42E65) ALL PRODUCED SUBFLARES WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT X-RAY ACTIVITY. FREQUENT TYPE III AND V SWEEPS OCCURRED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8340 (N19E50) REMAINS THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE REGION, COVERING 470 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA, BUT
HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NEW REGIONS 8341
(N19W58), 8342 (N17E38), AND 8343 WERE ALL NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8340.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ARE
EXPECTED AS A LARGE EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE MOVES
INTO A FAVORABLE GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 SEP-22 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 SEP 127
PREDICTED   20 SEP-22 SEP  130/130/135
90 DAY MEAN        19 SEP 127
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 SEP  014/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 SEP  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 SEP-22 SEP  015/020-015/025-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 SEP-22 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/40
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/45/45
MINOR STORM           20/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10