:Product: 19980920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 263 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8340 (N19E38)
PRODUCED AN M1 FLARE AT 19/0251Z. A STRONG TYPE IV SWEEP AND 340 SFU
TENFLARE ACCOMPANIED THIS FLARE. REGION 8336 (S29W02) PRODUCED A
C1/SF AT 19/0949Z AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
REGION 8342 (N18E25) WAS ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXHIBITING
FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS WHILE PRODUCING SEVERAL SUBFLARES.
REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGIONS 8336 AND 8340 ARE BOTH CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND HAVE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS
FLARE. REGION 8342 IS STILL DEVELOPING AND MAY SOON BE CAPABLE OF
C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS AT
MOSTLY HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 SEP-23 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 SEP 132
PREDICTED   21 SEP-23 SEP  135/135/140
90 DAY MEAN        20 SEP 128
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 SEP  008/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 SEP  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 SEP-23 SEP  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 SEP-23 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05