:Product: 19980921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 264 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE
REGION CURRENTLY VISIBLE, REGION 8340 (N19E25), PRODUCED A C2/SF AT
21/0806UT AND A C2/1F AT 21/1842UT. THIS REGION IS STILL UNDERGOING
SLOW GROWTH AND IS CURRENTLY A DKO GROUP COVERING 540 MILLIONTHS OF
WHITE LIGHT AREA. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM REGION 8340 WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS IN HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS
AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 SEP-24 SEP
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 SEP 138
PREDICTED   22 SEP-24 SEP  140/145/150
90 DAY MEAN        21 SEP 128
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 SEP  004/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 SEP  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 SEP-24 SEP  015/015-015/015-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 SEP-24 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01