:Product: 19980926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 269 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW TO LOW. SEVERAL SMALL
C-CLASS X-RAY AND SUB-FAINT FLARES OCCURRED FROM REGION 8340
(N21W40).  A LARGE NUMBER OF FILAMENTS ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE
ACTIVE PERIOD.  THE ACTIVE PERIOD CORRESPONDED TO AN INCREASE IN
SOLAR WIND SPEED AND TEMPERATURE AND A DECREASE IN DENSITY (A
CORONAL HOLE EFFECT).  HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS IN
THE HIGHER LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 SEP-29 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 SEP 136
PREDICTED   27 SEP-29 SEP  138/138/140
90 DAY MEAN        26 SEP 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 SEP  059/121
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP  008/015-005/015-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 SEP-29 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01