:Product: 19980927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 270 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGIONS 8340 (N19W54) AND 8346
(S28E01) PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL AND MODERATE C-CLASS X-RAY,
SUB-FAINT AND 1F FLARES.  A C2.6/SF FLARE FROM 8340 PRODUCED AN
ASSOCIATED TEN FLARE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
ELEVATED SOLAR WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ACTIVE PERIODS AT MID-LATITUDE STATIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS IN
THE HIGHER LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 SEP-30 SEP
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 SEP 126
PREDICTED   28 SEP-30 SEP  125/125/130
90 DAY MEAN        27 SEP 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP  011/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP  008/010-005/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 SEP-30 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01