:Product: 19980928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 271 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 8347
(S12W21), 8348 (N16E79), AND 8349 (S27E67) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
REGION 8340 (N21W69) PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL AND MODERATE C-CLASS
X-RAY, SUB-FAINT FLARES AS IT DECREASED IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY.  AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M3 XRAY EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A RADIO
BURST AND TYPE 2 AND 4 SWEEP.  REGION 8343 (N37W52) REGAINED 2 SPOTS AFTER
BEING A PLAGE REGION FOR 2 DAYS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE PERIOD.
ENERGETIC ELECTRONS WERE AT HIGH LEVELS AFTER 0900UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  ENERGETIC ELECTRONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 SEP-01 OCT
CLASS M    40/40/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 SEP 123
PREDICTED   29 SEP-01 OCT  125/128/133
90 DAY MEAN        28 SEP 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 SEP  008/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 SEP  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 SEP-01 OCT  005/010-008/010-010/013
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 SEP-01 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01