:Product: 19980929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 272 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 SEP 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  A C6/SF FLARE OCCURRED IN
REGION 8340 (N19W82) AT 29/0154UT.  A BRIGHT SURGE ON THE LIMB
OCCURRED AT 0945UT FROM REGION 8339 (S12W90).  A DISAPPEARING
FILAMENT OCCURRED FROM REGION 8345 (N22W71) EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT
HAS REGAINED MASS AND FORM AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  ENERGETIC
ELECTRONS HAVE REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  ENERGETIC
ELECTRONS WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 SEP-02 OCT
CLASS M    40/40/25
CLASS X    05/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 SEP 116
PREDICTED   30 SEP-02 OCT  114/118/122
90 DAY MEAN        29 SEP 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT  008/008-008/012-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 SEP-02 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    11/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01