:Product: 19981002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 275 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY MINOR B-CLASS
ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8350 (N20E67) IS A MODERATE SIZE
CLASS E GROUP WITH A BIPOLAR MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. OTHER REGIONS
WERE STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
VERY LOW. REGION 8350 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS
EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A
HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY STREAM IN THE VICINITY OF THE EARTH. A RAPID
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED, TOTAL FIELD, AND TEMPERATURE OCCURRED AROUND
02/0700Z. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 30 SEP
CONTINUED TO DECAY DURING THE PERIOD AND FELL BELOW 10 PFU AT
02/0830Z. THE POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT WAS DECLARED OVER AT
02/0300Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED
HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 03-04 OCT. PERIODS OF MAJOR
STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD
SUBSIDE ON 05 OCT WHEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 OCT-05 OCT
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 OCT 113
PREDICTED   03 OCT-05 OCT  111/110/112
90 DAY MEAN        02 OCT 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 OCT  017/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 OCT  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 OCT-05 OCT  020/030-015/020-008/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 OCT-05 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/40/15
MINOR STORM           25/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/40/15
MINOR STORM           30/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/10/05