:Product: 19981003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 276 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. ONLY MINOR B-CLASS
ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8350 (N19E55) WAS GENERALLY
STABLE. SLIGHT MAGNETIC POLARITY MIXING BECAME EVIDENT DURING THE
PERIOD. A MODERATE SIZE FILAMENT LOCATED FROM N51E35-N48E57 FADED
BETWEEN 03/0253-0849Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8350 IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING WAS OBSERVED DURING THAT
TIME. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, THE FIELD WAS QUIET TO
UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY FELL STEADILY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM
ABOUT 650 KM/S TO APPROXIMATELY 500 KM/S. IT APPEARS THAT THE
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON 03 OCT, ACTUALLY ARRIVED ON 02 OCT
NEAR 0700Z.  ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 OCT-06 OCT
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 OCT 112
PREDICTED   04 OCT-06 OCT  111/110/111
90 DAY MEAN        03 OCT 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 OCT  027/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 OCT  017/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 OCT-06 OCT  008/015-008/010-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 OCT-06 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01