:Product: 19981004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 277 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8350 (N20E41) IS
THE ONLY REGION WITH SPOTS ON THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS REGION SHOWED
SOME SLOW GROWTH THIS PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL B-CLASS SUBFLARES.
A SEVEN DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED NEAR S34W08. REMAINING REGIONS
HAVE BEEN VERY STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW. REGION 8350 HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 OCT-07 OCT
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 OCT 115
PREDICTED   05 OCT-07 OCT  115/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        04 OCT 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 OCT  016/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 OCT  005/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 OCT-07 OCT  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 OCT-07 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01