:Product: 19981005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 278 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8350 (N19E28)
PRODUCED SOME MINOR B-CLASS SUBFLARES BUT OTHERWISE SHOWED LITTLE
CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. A SMALL B-TYPE SPOT GROUP HAS RE-EMERGED IN
REGION 8349 (S23W26). NEW REGION 8351 (S18W66) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW. REGION 8350 HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING A C-CLASS
FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN
HIGH LATITUDES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS ALL DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 OCT-08 OCT
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 OCT 117
PREDICTED   06 OCT-08 OCT  118/119/120
90 DAY MEAN        05 OCT 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 OCT  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 OCT  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 OCT-08 OCT  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 OCT-08 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01