:Product: 19981006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 279 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  REGION 8350 (N19E14)
PRODUCED THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY, SEVERAL SMALL B CLASS SUB-FLARES.
TWO REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8352 (S12E30) AND REGION
8353 (N20E68), BOTH ARE SMALL SPOT GROUPS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.  A SMALL DISCONTINUITY (SHARP
CHANGE IN THE VELOCITY, DENSITY, AND MAGNETIC FIELD) WAS OBSERVED IN
THE SOLAR WIND AT ACE AROUND 1530UT.  THIS RESULTED IN A SMALL
IMPULSE IN THE MAGNETIC FIELD AT 1630UT FOLLOWED BY MINOR CHANGES IN
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 OCT-09 OCT
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 OCT 117
PREDICTED   07 OCT-09 OCT  119/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        06 OCT 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 OCT  002/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 OCT  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 OCT-09 OCT  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 OCT-09 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01