:Product: 19981007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 280 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8355 (S21E64)
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY. SEVEN
C-CLASS AND TWO M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED.  AN M1/1N OCCURRED AT
07/1247Z AND A M2/SF AT 07/1712Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS PREVENTING AN
ACCURATE ANALYSIS BUT EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST A STRONG MAGNETIC
GRADIENT EXISTS AND A DELTA CONFIGURATION LIKELY EXIST IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THIS REGION. REGION 8350 (N19E02) CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE MINOR SUBFLARING BUT HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. TWO
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8354 (S18E00), AND REGION 8355
(S21E64).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8355 IS STILL DEVELOPING. FURTHER M-CLASS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AND IF GROWTH CONTINUES AT ITS PRESENT RATE,
X-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. SOLAR
WIND SPEED HAS BEEN ON A STEADY INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY'S SHOCK WAS
OBSERVED AT L1 AT 06/1530Z. BZ FINALLY WENT SOUTHWARD AROUND 07/10Z
AND ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE PRESENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 OCT-10 OCT
CLASS M    65/65/65
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 OCT 124
PREDICTED   08 OCT-10 OCT  130/135/138
90 DAY MEAN        07 OCT 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 OCT  002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 OCT  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 OCT-10 OCT  015/015-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 OCT-10 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/15/08
MINOR STORM           15/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01