:Product: 19981008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 281 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8355 (S22E51) PRODUCED
THREE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS. A C4 OCCURRED AT 08/0837Z ACCOMPANIED BY
A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AND A 245MHZ BURST OF 5100SFU. THIS EVENT WAS
NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED. REGION 8356 (N21W04) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8355 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
M-CLASS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH
ISOLATED MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED  WITH OCCASIONAL  ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ON THE THIRD DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 OCT-11 OCT
CLASS M    65/65/65
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 OCT 124
PREDICTED   09 OCT-11 OCT  125/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        08 OCT 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 OCT  016/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 OCT  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 OCT-11 OCT  010/010-005/010-005/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 OCT-11 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01