:Product: 19981009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 282 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED
WHICH WERE NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED, A C1 AT 09/0753Z AND A C1 AT
09/1005Z. REGION 8355 (S22E37) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 09/1330Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
HOWEVER THE REGIONS PRESENT ON THE VISIBLE DISK DO HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 OCT-12 OCT
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 OCT 124
PREDICTED   10 OCT-12 OCT  125/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        09 OCT 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 OCT  014/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 OCT  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 OCT-12 OCT  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 OCT-12 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01