:Product: 19981010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 283 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S LARGEST FLARE WAS A C7
AT 1318Z. THE LOCATION ON THE DISK WAS NOT OBSERVED DUE TO WEATHER
LIMITED OBSERVATIONS. REGION 8350 (N19W38) APPEARED TO BE STABLE
DURING THE PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A SMALL INTRUSION OF LEADER POLARITY
FLUX INTO THE TRAILER PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS PART OF THE GROUP
WAS OBSERVED TO PRODUCE SOME POINT BRIGHTENING ACTIVITY. REGION 8355
(S22E23), THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK (180 MILLIONTHS), WAS STABLE
AND QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8350 SEEMS TO BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
FLARE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAGNETIC FIELD STRUCTURE IN REGION
8355 APPEARS TO BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT: AN OCCASIONAL C-FLARE IS
LIKELY FROM THIS GROUP AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. THERE WAS AN ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIOD FROM 0300-0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES
ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS TODAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 OCT-13 OCT
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 OCT 121
PREDICTED   11 OCT-13 OCT  125/125/130
90 DAY MEAN        10 OCT 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 OCT  010/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 OCT  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 OCT-13 OCT  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 OCT-13 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01