:Product: 19981011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 284 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE FIVE, LOW-LEVEL C
CLASS FLARES TODAY, TWO OF WHICH COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO REGION 8356
(N21W42). THIS GROUP APPEARED TO BE IN DECAY TODAY. REGION 8355
(S22E10) CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK, BUT WAS VERY
STABLE. REGION 8350 (N20W53) WAS IN DECAY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AN INCREASE IN
BACKGROUND FLUX LEVELS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF FIVE SPOTTED
REGIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OF THESE THE MOST NOTEWORTHY IS
OLD REGION 8340 (N20, L=013) WHICH PRODUCED 3 M-CLASS FLARES ON ITS
PREVIOUS DISK TRANSIT AND IS DUE TO RETURN EARLY ON THE 14TH.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 OCT-14 OCT
CLASS M    05/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 OCT 119
PREDICTED   12 OCT-14 OCT  125/125/130
90 DAY MEAN        11 OCT 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 OCT  011/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 OCT  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 OCT-14 OCT  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 OCT-14 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01