:Product: 19981012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 285 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. TWO C-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES WERE DETECTED, ONE OF WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBFLARE IN REGION 8355 (S22W04). ALL REGIONS APPEARED STABLE DURING
THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING TREND, GIVEN THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD
REGION 8340 (N20, L=013) ON 14 OCTOBER. REGION 8355 APPEARS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED, THOUGH THE UNSETTLED
PERIODS WERE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 OCT-15 OCT
CLASS M    10/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 OCT 114
PREDICTED   13 OCT-15 OCT  115/120/125
90 DAY MEAN        12 OCT 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 OCT  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 OCT  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 OCT-15 OCT  005/008-005/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 OCT-15 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01