:Product: 19981013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 286 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED B- AND
C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED. THERE WAS NO REMARKABLE GROWTH OR DECAY
OBSERVED IN ANY OF THE PRESENT REGIONS. NEW REGIONS 8358 (N15E02)
AND 8359 (N23W47) WERE NUMBERED. BOTH WERE SMALL, SIMPLE BIPOLES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING TREND, GIVEN THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD
REGIONS 8340 (N19, L = 012) AND 8344 (S22, L = 007) ON 14 OCTOBER.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
ACTIVITY INCREASED DURING 13/0900 - 1200UT WITH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS DETECTED AT ALL LATITUDES AND MINOR STORM LEVELS DETECTED AT
A FEW HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 OCT-16 OCT
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 OCT 118
PREDICTED   14 OCT-16 OCT  120/125/130
90 DAY MEAN        13 OCT 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 OCT  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 OCT  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 OCT-16 OCT  005/005-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 OCT-16 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01