:Product: 19981014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 287 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED B- AND
C-CLASS SUBFLARES WERE OBSERVED. MINOR GROWTH OCCURRED IN REGION
8358 (N15W12) AND NEW REGION 8360 (S11W28).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET. HOWEVER, ISOLATED
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE PERIODS WERE DETECTED AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE
STATIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ALTITUDE REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 OCT-17 OCT
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 OCT 119
PREDICTED   15 OCT-17 OCT  120/125/130
90 DAY MEAN        14 OCT 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 OCT  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT  008/005-008/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 OCT-17 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01