:Product: 19981016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 289 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8358 (N15W41) AND 8360
(S18W39) PRODUCED SEVERAL B AND C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 8360 IS
STILL UNDERGOING MINOR GROWTH AND NOW COVERS 340 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE
LIGHT AREA. A LARGE 27 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N19E10 ERUPTED YESTERDAY
MORNING AT APPROXIMATELY 15/1000Z. EIT IMAGERY DETECTED THIS ACTIVE
FILAMENT AS IT ERUPTED AND LASCO REPORTED A FULL HALO CME. ALL OTHER
REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGIONS 8360 AND 8358 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TOMORROW. IMPACT FROM THE 15 OCT CME IS
EXPECTED ON DAY 2 THROUGH DAY 3. EXPECT ACTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIODS ON BOTH DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 OCT-19 OCT
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 OCT 131
PREDICTED   17 OCT-19 OCT  135/140/140
90 DAY MEAN        16 OCT 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 OCT  002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 OCT  003/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 OCT-19 OCT  005/008-016/025-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 OCT-19 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/50/50
MINOR STORM           01/35/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/50/50
MINOR STORM           05/40/40
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/10