:Product: 19981019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 292 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8361
(N14W66) GREW SLOWLY AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES, TWO OF WHICH
REACHED C-CLASS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C7/1N AT 19/1231Z
ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR DISCRETE RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8358 (N15W82)
STABILIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8361 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL C-CLASS
FLARES BEFORE DEPARTING THE WEST LIMB ON 22 OCTOBER. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REACHED STORM LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A CORONAL
MASS EJECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OF 15
OCTOBER.  ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES WHILE THE HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH MINOR STORM LEVELS
POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 OCT-22 OCT
CLASS M    25/20/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 OCT 118
PREDICTED   20 OCT-22 OCT  115/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        19 OCT 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT  035/050
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT  015/030-015/020-015/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 OCT-22 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/35
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01