:Product: 19981020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 293 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8361 (N15W79) CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.
SUBFLARES ALSO OCCURRED IN REGION 8358 (N17W93).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED IN REGION 8361. A SMALL M-CLASS FLARE
FROM THIS ACTIVE REGION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO QUIET. THE 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 OCT-23 OCT
CLASS M    15/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 OCT 121
PREDICTED   21 OCT-23 OCT  120/118/115
90 DAY MEAN        20 OCT 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 OCT  027/052
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT  010/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT  015/015-015/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 OCT-23 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01