:Product: 19981022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 295 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8365 (S26W47) PRODUCED
SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW AND HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED INTO A MODERATELY LARGE (300+ MILLIONTHS) E-TYPE
SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE IN REGION 8365. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION AS WELL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REMAINED UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A HIGH-SPEED STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN POLAR
CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO QUIET WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 OCT-25 OCT
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 OCT 115
PREDICTED   23 OCT-25 OCT  115/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        22 OCT 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 OCT  016/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 OCT  016/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 OCT-25 OCT  015/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 OCT-25 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01