:Product: 19981023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 296 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8365 (S27W61) CONTINUED
TO PRODUCE SUBFLARES BUT AT A REDUCED RATE FROM THE LAST TWO DAYS.
GROWTH IN THIS REGION APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8365.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE APPEARS TO BE
ENDING. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 OCT-26 OCT
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 OCT 113
PREDICTED   24 OCT-26 OCT  112/112/115
90 DAY MEAN        23 OCT 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 OCT  012/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 OCT  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 OCT-26 OCT  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 OCT-26 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01