:Product: 19981024RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 297 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8365 (S26W72) GENERATED
A SINGLE C1/SF X-RAY EVENT AT 24/0454Z. THE TWO OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8366 (S11W43) AND 8367 (N17W42), WERE QUIET AND
UNREMARKABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8365 LIKELY AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED DURING
THE INTERVAL 24/0300-0900Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
REMAINED HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT
CLASS M    10/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 OCT 111
PREDICTED   25 OCT-27 OCT  110/110/112
90 DAY MEAN        24 OCT   131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 OCT  008/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 OCT  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 OCT-27 OCT  010/010-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01