:Product: 19981025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
***************CORRECTED COPY*****************
SDF NUMBER 298 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, BASED ON A SINGLE C2/SF X-RAY
EVENT FROM REGION 8366 (S12W54). NEW REGIONS 8368 (N26W24), 8369
(N17E59), AND 8370 (S31W67), WERE NUMBERED TODAY. TWO PROMINENCES
ARE CURRENTLY ACTIVE ON THE EAST LIMB, ONE AT N39 WITH AN EXTENT OF
0.07RV, AND THE OTHER AT S20 WITH AN EXTENT OF 0.09RV. THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS HAS BEEN QUIET AND UNREMARKABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY PROBABLE FROM REGION 8369.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
RECORDED DURING THE INTERVAL 25/0300-0900Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECRON FLUX CONTINUES IN THE HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 OCT-28 OCT
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 OCT 108
PREDICTED   26 OCT-28 OCT  110/110/112
90 DAY MEAN        25 OCT   131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 OCT  011/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 OCT  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 OCT-28 OCT  010/010-010/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 OCT-28 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01