:Product: 19981026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 299 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THREE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, ONLY ONE OF WHICH WAS CORRELATED,
A C2/SF FROM REGION 8369 AT 26/1820Z. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE
LIMB (EPL) AT N24 BEGAN AT26/1711Z, AND REACHED A MAXIMUM EXENT OF
0.27RV.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8369.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX CONTINUES IN THE HIGH
RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 OCT-29 OCT
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 OCT 104
PREDICTED   27 OCT-29 OCT  102/100/100
90 DAY MEAN        26 OCT 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 OCT  010/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 OCT  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 OCT-29 OCT  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 OCT-29 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01