:Product: 19981027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 300 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. REGION 8369 (N18E31), A 7-SPOT 'CAO' BETA GROUP, IS THE
ONLY ACTIVE REGION CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH THE CHANCE FOR C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8369.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. A
SINGLE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES
DURING THE INTERVAL 26/2100-2400Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX CONTINUES IN THE HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 OCT-30 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 OCT 103
PREDICTED   28 OCT-30 OCT  100/100/102
90 DAY MEAN        27 OCT   131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 OCT  003/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 OCT  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 OCT-30 OCT  010/008-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 OCT-30 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01