:Product: 19981028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 301 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 OCT 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8371 (S21E36) EMERGED ON THE DISK,
AND THERE MAY BE OTHER REGIONS NOW NEAR EAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT LOW LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX DECLINED TO MOSTLY MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 OCT-31 OCT
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 OCT 108
PREDICTED   29 OCT-31 OCT  110/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        28 OCT 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 OCT  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 OCT  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 OCT-31 OCT  005/008-005/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 OCT-31 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01