:Product: 19981103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 307 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THIS WAS CAUSED BY A
SINGLE M1/2N FLARE THAT OCCURRED ON 03/1933UT IN REGION 8375
(N18E07). FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8375
WAS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WITH A 22 SPOT CAO, BETA-GAMMA GROUP. A
NEW REGION 8378 (N17E76) WAS NUMBERED. IT IS ROTATING ONTO THE EAST
LIMB AND CURRENTLY IS A SINGLE SPOT HAX, BETA GROUP. THE REST OF THE
DISK AND LIMB WAS MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF REGION 8375 PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON 05 NOVEMBER DUE TO THE M1 EVENT ON
03/1933UT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 NOV-06 NOV
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 NOV 152
PREDICTED   04 NOV-06 NOV  135/140/140
90 DAY MEAN        03 NOV 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 NOV  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 NOV  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 NOV-06 NOV  008/008-020/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 NOV-06 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/35/15
MINOR STORM           05/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/50/20
MINOR STORM           05/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01