:Product: 19981104RSGA.txt :Issued: 1998 Nov 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 308 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 NOV 1998 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI, BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON 02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376 LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT 04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER 6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 NOV-07 NOV CLASS M 30/30/30 CLASS X 10/10/10 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 04 NOV 141 PREDICTED 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150 90 DAY MEAN 04 NOV 132 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV ???/??? PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 020/???-020/???-010/??? VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 NOV-07 NOV A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 35/35/15 MINOR STORM 15/15/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 50/50/20 MINOR STORM 25/25/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 From owner-forecast@proton.sel.noaa.gov Wed Nov 4 17:41:46 1998 Received: by proton.sel.noaa.gov (1.37.109.18/16.2) id AA229939306; Wed, 4 Nov 1998 17:41:46 -0500 Return-Path: Date: Wed, 4 Nov 1998 22:40:04 GMT From: Space Environment Center Message-Id: <199811042240.WAA03261@solar.sec.noaa.gov> To: forecast-send@proton.sel.noaa.gov Subject: RSGA Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Sender: owner-forecast@proton.sel.noaa.gov Precedence: bulk :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 1998 Nov 04 2240 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVIT : : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : : : : : : : : SDF NUMBER 308 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 NOV 1998 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI, BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON 02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376 LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT 04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER 6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 NOV-07 NOV CLASS M 30/30/30 CLASS X 10/10/10 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 04 NOV 141 PREDICTED 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150 90 DAY MEAN 04 NOV 132 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV 7/7 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 20/12-20/15-15/10 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 NOV-07 NOV A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 35/35/15 MINOR STORM 15/15/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 50/50/20 MINOR STORM 25/25/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01