:Product: 19981105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 309 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  REGION 8375 (N18W21) PRODUCED
THREE M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS TODAY, M1/1B AT 05/1336, AN M3 AT 1825,
AND AN M8/2B AT 1955UT.  THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE AND
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.  REGION 8381 (N22E15) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  ENERGETIC ELECTRONS
WERE BRIEFLY AT MODERATE LEVELS NEAR 05/1500UT, AND HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THEN.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THIS
PERIOD.  THE THIRD DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM AS A
CME (ERUPTED ON 04/0418UT) SHOULD BE ARRIVING AT EARTH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 NOV-08 NOV
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    50/50/50
PROTON     40/50/50
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 NOV 153
PREDICTED   06 NOV-08 NOV  155/150/150
90 DAY MEAN        05 NOV 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 NOV  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 NOV  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 NOV-08 NOV  015/012-015/024-030/032
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 NOV-08 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/40
MINOR STORM           10/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/50/50
MINOR STORM           15/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/15