:Product: 19981106RSGA.txt :Issued: 1998 Nov 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 310 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 NOV 1998 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE WITH A 1B/M1 FLARE FROM REGION 8375 (N18W35) AT 1511UT. THERE WAS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE ENERGETIC PROTON LEVEL OF GT 10 MEV, BUT DENSITIES DID NOT PASS THE THRESHOLD OF 10 SFU. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO MINOR STORM. NEAR THE START OF THE UT DAY A SOLAR WIND STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTIAL HALO REPORTED ON 2 NOV ARRIVED AT EARTH AND CAUSED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORM STRENGTH. ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED SEVERAL TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NASA GODDARD REPORTED A FULL HALO CME WHICH OCCURRED AT 05/1945UT. THIS IS THE FOURTH REPORTED CME IN THREE DAYS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OF THIS PERIOD. THE REMAINING DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM DUE TO A REPORTED FULL-HALO CME ON 04/0418UT AND 05/0241. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 NOV-09 NOV CLASS M 75/75/75 CLASS X 50/50/50 PROTON 50/50/50 PCAF YELLOW IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 06 NOV 141 PREDICTED 07 NOV-09 NOV 145/140/140 90 DAY MEAN 06 NOV 132 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 NOV 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 NOV 018/023 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 NOV-09 NOV 015/025-040/035-020/020 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 NOV-09 NOV A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/40/30 MINOR STORM 15/25/20 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/10/10 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 50/50/50 MINOR STORM 20/30/30 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/15/15