:Product: 19981107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 311 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
M2 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 07/1106UT.  A NEW SUNSPOT GROUP WAS
NUMBERED AS REGION 8382 (N18W32) TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM.  THE CME REPORTED ON
04/0418UT IMPACTED THE MAGNETOSPHERE AND CAUSED ACTIVE AND MINOR
STORM CONDITIONS TODAY.  THE LEVEL OF GT 10 MEV PROTONS WAS
ELEVATED, BUT DID NOT CROSS THE GT 10 PFU THRESHOLD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 NOV-10 NOV
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    50/50/50
PROTON     50/25/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 NOV 149
PREDICTED   08 NOV-10 NOV  145/145/145
90 DAY MEAN        07 NOV 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 NOV  017/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 NOV  018/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 NOV-10 NOV  040/035-025/025-025/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 NOV-10 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           40/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/40
MINOR STORM           30/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/15/10