:Product: 19981108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 312 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  REGION 8375 (N19W62)
PRODUCED AN M2/1N FLARE AT 1712UT.  REGION 8383 (S14E76) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SEVERE STORM. THE CME REPORTED ON
5 NOV ARRIVED AT AND INTERACTED WITH THE EARTH'S MAGNETOSPHERE,
CAUSING SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE 06-09UT PERIOD.  THE GT
10 MEV PROTONS CLIMBED PAST THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD FOR APPROXIMATELY
25 MINUTES STARTING AT 08/0245UT.  THEY HAVE DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS
SINCE THAT TIME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 NOV-11 NOV
CLASS M    75/75/50
CLASS X    50/50/20
PROTON     25/25/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 NOV 153
PREDICTED   09 NOV-11 NOV  150/155/150
90 DAY MEAN        08 NOV 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 NOV  013/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 NOV  018/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 NOV-11 NOV  025/030-020/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 NOV-11 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/30/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05