:Product: 19981110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 314 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. REGION 8375 (N22W88)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 10/1544Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE
SYSTEM. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW TO MID C-CLASS EVENTS
DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8384 (S27E63) WAS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT
EXHIBITED MIXED POLARITIES AND A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION. A
PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO OVER
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BEGINNING AT 09/1754Z. SEVERAL OTHER LARGE
MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REGION 8375 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS AND OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. X-CLASS
EVENTS FROM THIS REGION REMAIN POSSIBLE. ON 13 NOV, FLARE FREQUENCY
SHOULD DECREASE AS REGION 8375 ROTATES FAR BEYOND THE WEST LIMB.
REGION 8384 COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE SMALL FLARES DUE TO ITS MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 11-12 NOV. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS
ARE FORECAST FOR 13 NOV IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO MASS
EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 NOV-13 NOV
CLASS M    70/30/20
CLASS X    30/15/10
PROTON     30/20/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 NOV 154
PREDICTED   11 NOV-13 NOV  145/142/140
90 DAY MEAN        10 NOV 133 (ESTIMATED)
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 NOV  030/078
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV  006/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV  008/010-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 NOV-13 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10