:Product: 19981111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 315 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. TWO
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARES OCCURRED AT 11/0407Z AND 11/1016Z.
THE PROBABLE SOURCE FOR THESE TWO EVENTS ARE DEPARTED REGION 8375
(N21W96). SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD WERE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO REGION 8375. REGION 8384 (S27E54) HAS SHOWN ITSELF
WITH A LARGE PENUMBRAL AREA AND SEVERAL UMBRAE. IT IS LIKELY ONE OF
THESE UMBRAE IS OF OPPOSITE POLARITY BUT THAT LIKELIHOOD COULD NOT
BE VERIFIED. A MODERATELY LARGE, HIGH LATITUDE, FILAMENT LOCATED
NEAR N43W48 FADED BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 11/1100-1400Z. NEW REGION
8385 (N19W29) EMERGED BETWEEN TWO EXISTING REGIONS. THE GROWTH RATE
OF THIS REGION WAS LOW TO MODERATE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND
TOWARD LOW LEVELS AS REGION 8375 ROTATES FARTHER BEHIND THE WEST
LIMB. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR 12-13 NOV FROM
THAT AREA. REGION 8384 COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE C AND POSSIBLY M-CLASS
EVENTS. AT THIS TIME, NEW REGION 8385 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT FLARE PRODUCER. HOWEVER, CONTINUED GROWTH COULD BEGIN A
PERIOD OF INTERACTION WITH OTHER NEARBY REGIONS AND AN INCREASE IN
FLARE PRODUCTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS BRIEFLY REACHED HIGH LEVELS AROUND
11/1630Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 12 NOV. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 13-14 NOV. ISOLATED MINOR STORM
PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT INTERVAL. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
UPON A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 NOV-14 NOV
CLASS M    60/35/20
CLASS X    20/10/05
PROTON     20/15/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 NOV 147
PREDICTED   12 NOV-14 NOV  142/140/140
90 DAY MEAN        11 NOV 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV  003/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV  008/010-015/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 NOV-14 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/35/35
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05