:Product: 19981112RSGA.txt :Issued: 1998 Nov 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 316 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 NOV 1998 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. ONE OPTICALLY CORRELATED M1/1N FLARE FROM REGION 8385 (N19W44) OCCURRED AT 12/0528Z. REGION 8383 (S16E27) PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 12/0709Z. SEVERAL OTHER SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8385 CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME GROWTH TODAY. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8383, 8384 AND 8385 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C AND M-CLASS FLARES. THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF REGION 8375 ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING AS IT ROTATES A SECOND DAY BEHIND THE WEST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS REACHED AT HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING 13 AND 14 NOV WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV. A QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITION SHOULD RETURN ON 15 NOV. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 NOV-15 NOV CLASS M 50/40/40 CLASS X 10/05/05 PROTON 10/05/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 12 NOV 142 PREDICTED 13 NOV-15 NOV 140/140/138 90 DAY MEAN 12 NOV 132 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 NOV 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 NOV 001/004 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 NOV-15 NOV 015/015-015/020-010/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 NOV-15 NOV A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/30/15 MINOR STORM 15/15/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 35/35/15 MINOR STORM 20/20/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01