:Product: 19981113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 317 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8385 (N20W58) PRODUCED A
C3/SF AT 12/2354Z AND REGION 8383 (S16E14) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT
13/0312Z. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8386 (S20E57).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8383 AND 8385 ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING C AND M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL 13/0300Z WHEN IT BECAME ACTIVE
TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND
BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE PROBABLE CAUSE OF TODAYS ACTIVITY WAS THE PARTIAL HALO
CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 NOV-16 NOV
CLASS M    50/40/40
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 NOV 135
PREDICTED   14 NOV-16 NOV  130/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        13 NOV 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 NOV  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 NOV  040/055
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 NOV-16 NOV  015/020-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 NOV-16 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05