:Product: 19981114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 318 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8385 (N21W69) PRODUCED
SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE LARGEST A
C5/SF AT 13/2059Z. REGION 8383 (S15E02) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT
14/1441Z.  AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT
14/0210Z. ANOTHER OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT
14/0508Z AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP. THE PROBABLE
SOURCE FOR THIS EVENT WAS OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO FROM BEHIND THE
DISK IN THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAS LIKELY FROM REGION 8375 WHICH MADE
ITS TRANSIT BEHIND THE DISK A COUPLE DAYS AGO. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8387 (N22E46) AND REGION 8388 (N23E55).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8383 AND 8385 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C
AND M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE GT 10
MEV AND GT 100 MEV PROTONS REACHED EVENT LEVEL TODAY. THE GT 10 MEV
STARTED AT 14/0810Z WITH A MAXIMUM OF 300 PFU AT 14/1245Z. THE GT
100 MEV STARTED AT 14/0755Z WITH A MAXIMUM 6.1 PFU AT 14/0950Z. BOTH
EVENTS REMAIN IN PROGRESS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
PROBABLE CAUSE OF TODAYS ACTIVITY WAS THE PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION ON 09 NOV. THE GT 10 MEV AND GT 100 MEV EVENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVEL BY THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 NOV-17 NOV
CLASS M    50/40/40
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 NOV 127
PREDICTED   15 NOV-17 NOV  120/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        14 NOV 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV  036/060
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV  030/040
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV  010/012-010/010-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 NOV-17 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05