:Product: 19981115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 319 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1
X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 8389 (S19W44).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GT 100 MEV PROTON
EVENT ENDED AT 14/1645Z WITH A MAXIMUM OF 6.1 PFU OBSERVED AT
14/0950Z. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON EVENT REMAINS IN PROGRESS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS ON THE THIRD DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO A RECURRENT PATTERN OF A
NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 NOV-18 NOV
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 NOV 126
PREDICTED   16 NOV-18 NOV  120/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        15 NOV 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV  021/038
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV  010/010-010/012-015/030
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 NOV-18 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/35
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10