:Product: 19981116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 320 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGION 8383 (S15W24) PRODUCED
SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES.  REGION 8385, JUST PAST THE WEST LIMB,
PRODUCED A C7 X-RAY FLARE AND AN ACTIVE SURGE REGION WITH AN EXTENT
OF .12 RV.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GT 10 MEV PROTON
EVENT ENDED AT 16/0955Z WITH A MAXIUM OF 300 PFU OBSERVED AT
14/1245Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY DUE
TO A RECURRENT PATTERN OF A NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 NOV-19 NOV
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 NOV 125
PREDICTED   17 NOV-19 NOV  120/120/115
90 DAY MEAN        16 NOV 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 NOV  005/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV  008/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV  010/012-015/030-015/045
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 NOV-19 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05