:Product: 19981117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 321 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8383 (S14W43) PRODUCED
TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT: A C4/SF AT 16/2153Z. ADDITIONAL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS EVENTS TODAY WERE A C4 AT 16/2316Z, AND A  C2
THAT LASTED 92 MINUTES FROM 0351-0523Z. REGION 8384 (S27W23)
CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS STABLE. TWO
FILAMENT ERUPTIONS WERE NOTED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS: A 12 DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR N31E20 BETWEEN 16/1842-17/0643Z AND AN 11 DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR S41W50 BETWEEN 17/1723-17/1857Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS ATTAINED HIGH FLUX LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE, BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE SECOND DAY, WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE AT HIGH
LATITUDES. THE INCREASE IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO
MOSTLY UNSETTLED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 NOV-20 NOV
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 NOV 121
PREDICTED   18 NOV-20 NOV  120/120/115
90 DAY MEAN        17 NOV 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV  025/030-025/035-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 NOV-20 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/15
MINOR STORM           20/20/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                55/55/20
MINOR STORM           25/25/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/15/05