:Product: 19981118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 322 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S ONLY C-CLASS FLARE WAS
AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 AT 1055Z. REGION 8384 (S28W36)
CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT APPEARED TO BE IN
SLOW DECAY. NEW REGION 8391 (S17E61) EMERGED AS A SMALL BUT GROWING
B-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 2ND AND 3RD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 NOV-21 NOV
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 NOV 115
PREDICTED   19 NOV-21 NOV  115/115/110
90 DAY MEAN        18 NOV 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 NOV  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 NOV  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 NOV-21 NOV  020/015-012/015-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 NOV-21 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/25
MINOR STORM           25/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/05/05